299
FXUS61 KILN 240539
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE JAMES BAY WILL
HAVE PULLED ITS COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW, PROVIDING SUBTLE LIFT, SO A PASSING SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND HAVE KEPT
THE GRIDS DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER, REACHING
THE MID 70S NEAR THE IN/OH BORDER, LOW 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS REGION. THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FALL
TO THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
MONDAY DAY ARRIVES DRY AND COOL. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 MPH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL PIVOTING AROUND THE JAMES BAY WILL HAVE ANOTHER VORT LOBE WRAP
AROUND ITS BASE. THIS SUBTLE AREA OF LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING
SHOWER NORTH OF I-70 DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES
ARE VERY SLIM. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT ONLY A 20 POP OR SO UP THERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS. BY LATE WEEK, LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEAD TO UNCERTAIN FORECAST DETAILS.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING DUE TO
LITTLE MOISTURE AND A LACK OF DISTINCT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FOR FORCING.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS,
LIKELY TO BKN LOW END VFR, THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR IS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY, TO
NORTHWESTERLY.
THE BKN DECK PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY, SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND LINGERING CLOUDS DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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