675
FXUS61 KILN 241028
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE JAMES BAY WILL
HAVE PULLED ITS COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEAR TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW, PROVIDING SUBTLE LIFT, SO A PASSING SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND HAVE KEPT
THE GRIDS DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER, REACHING
THE MID 70S NEAR THE IN/OH BORDER, LOW 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS REGION. THIS RESULTS IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FALL
TO THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
MONDAY DAY ARRIVES DRY AND COOL. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 MPH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL PIVOTING AROUND THE JAMES BAY WILL HAVE ANOTHER VORT LOBE WRAP
AROUND ITS BASE. THIS SUBTLE AREA OF LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A PASSING
SHOWER NORTH OF I-70 DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES
ARE VERY SLIM. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT ONLY A 20 POP OR SO UP THERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS. BY LATE WEEK, LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LEAD TO UNCERTAIN FORECAST DETAILS.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING DUE TO
LITTLE MOISTURE AND A LACK OF DISTINCT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FOR FORCING.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION,
MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PATCHY MVFR AND EVEN
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES (ILN CVG LUK). THIS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO A VFR SCT/BKN DECK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SHIFTING TO
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR SO, GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND THE SCT/BKN DECK WILL DISSIPATE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINGS REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT, WITH PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING DOMINATING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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