663  
FXUS61 KILN 241719  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE  
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO  
OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO  
THE REGION BEHIND IT, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND  
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ON TUESDAY MORNING, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER  
NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTER CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER IOWA, EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ILN CWA BY  
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THEN DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY  
LATER ON THURSDAY.  
 
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOR A PERIOD  
OF WEATHER THAT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE AIR MASS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE FAIRLY DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THE COOLEST DAY, IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES,  
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TUESDAY -- A DAY WHERE THE WIND FLOW WILL STILL  
BE GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGHS  
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, ABOUT 10-15  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.  
 
ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW  
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. BY FRIDAY,  
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER  
80S, THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.  
 
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH, AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THESE SMALLER-SCALE  
FEATURES ARE NOT BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS FROM RUN  
TO RUN, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD  
OCCUR WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN  
APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SCT TO BKN CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS WE  
HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD HELP  
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT CAN BE  
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...JGL  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...HATZOS  
AVIATION...JGL  
 
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