727
FXUS61 KILN 090959
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE A BIT MORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE THOUGH, SO THINK THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL JUST BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A DRY FORECAST REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE REGION. SAT NIGHT AND SUN
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT
THIS FEATURE IS OFFSET IN TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. IT IS ALSO AT THIS
TIME THAT THE EURO STARTS TO BOMB OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER THAT HIT THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
SOLUTION. MAIN TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT EARLY SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP
BUT THE DRY FORECAST IS BETTER UNTIL MODELS CAN HONE IN ON THE
PROCESSES AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD ALLOW PRECIP AT THAT
TIME.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WILL WARM BY SAT AND SUN
TO 85-90 AS LOWS DROP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. THE WORK WEEK
WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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