645
FXUS61 KILN 110600
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH, MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART A GOOD DEAL OF SUN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHILE PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. WITH A DRY AIRMASS, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A PRETTY GOOD DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
NUDGING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL GET SHUNTED A BIT WESTWARD AS A ROBUST SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SUITE WHICH
DETERMINES HOW MUCH IF ANY EFFECT THAT WILL HAVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PASS
NEAR THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WHETHER THAT HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION IS IN QUESTION. ONE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ACCOUNTING FOR 37 PERCENT OF THE VARIABILITY IN THE NBM
BRINGS THIS THROUGH DRY. OTHER CLUSTERS INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN, BUT EVEN AT THAT THE CHANCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AND POTENTIAL
AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
AFTER THAT PASSES, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH BY THAT POINT WILL
HAVE BECOME RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE, WILL EXTEND FURTHER EAST AND
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. SO A RETURN TO A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH. IF THESE CLEAR KLUK
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS FORECAST, THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG TO OCCUR THERE. EVEN IF THAT
OCCURS, IT WOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY LEAVING VFR AREA WIDE. SOME HIGH
BASED CUMULUS COULD OCCUR WITH HEATING WHICH WOULD THEN DISSIPATE
TOWARDS 00Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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