431
FXUS61 KILN 130640
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER
LATE IN THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO STOP THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING WITH THIS, BUT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THERE IS A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WEST OF I-75 TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT EVEN WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING EASTWARDS AND CLOUDS WILL
BE DECREASING.
WITH THE CLOUDS TONIGHT, THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
PREVIOUS DAYS LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH AMPLITUDE, BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PREDOMINATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. UPPER HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HIGHS NEARLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BLOCK WILL BE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND HOW THAT OCCURS BRINGS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY. IN BROAD TERMS, A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THEN
SWING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AMPLITUDE AND TIMING
ARE THE PRIMARY QUESTION MARKS, ALTHOUGH SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS HAS
DECREASED WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN STORMS COULD SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVEN THOUGH LATEST NBM HAS CHANCES STILL
RATHER LOW.
WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING, HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM HEADING INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARM NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS LATE, ALTHOUGH EVEN IF THAT
WERE TO HAPPEN, NO RESTRICTIONS WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY RAIN.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. A WIND SHIFT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS
TO BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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