200
FXUS61 KILN 131620
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1220 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, OFFERING A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, WHILE A NARROW, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
PERSISTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO CANADA. DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST, SO SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN SMALL AND
CONFINED TO OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MIAMI VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
LEAD TO A WARM, DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK, DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S MOST DAYS, SO THE AIR WON'T FEEL HUMID.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN CONTROL.
THE H5 RIDGE THAT IS HELPING CREATE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AROUND THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A COOLDOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. QPF FOOTPRINT STILL NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH POPS
REMAINING IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN TERMINALS AT DAY, CVG, AND LUK THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL CAUSE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
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