823
FXUS61 KILN 132257
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
657 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, OFFERING A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE SW QUARTER OF THE ILN FA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HI-RES TRENDS. EVEN WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE TRI-STATE INTO EC/SE IN AND N KY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY TOP
OUT AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AT MOST. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER QUICKLY
TO ZERO AS ONE PROGRESSES E OF I-75.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, WHILE A NARROW, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
PERSISTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO CANADA. DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST, SO SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN SMALL AND
CONFINED TO OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MIAMI VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
LEAD TO A WARM, DRY SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK, DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S MOST DAYS, SO THE AIR WON'T FEEL HUMID.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN CONTROL.
THE H5 RIDGE THAT IS HELPING CREATE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AROUND THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A COOLDOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. QPF FOOTPRINT STILL NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH POPS
REMAINING IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
DESPITE SOME -SHRA WORKING THROUGH FAR SW PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE ISO HEAVIER SHRA POCKETS, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED IN COVERAGE, SO HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FCST FOR
NOW.
SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA WILL IMPACT KCVG/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT 08Z, BECOMING
MORE ISO TOWARD THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE SHIFTS
TO THE S/SW OF THE LOCAL SITES. SUPPOSE THAT A BRIEF SHRA CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KDAY OR KILN, BUT HAVE KEPT THESE SITES DRY
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THICKENING 8-10KFT CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOWARD LATE MORNING AND BEYOND. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR FROM NE TO SW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC FAVORED
EARLIER FOR KCMH/KLCK WHILE A FEW CU MAY LINGER AT KCVG/KLUK UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z MONDAY WHERE BETTER LL MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE N THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
GOING OUT OF THE E DURING THE DAYTIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
5-7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
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