289
FXUS61 KILN 142234
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MID- WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A CUT-OFF
LOW SPINNING NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
BETWEEN THESE STATIONARY SYSTEMS, DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL OFFER
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE BLOCKY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
TUESDAY AS A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ENOUGH OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS LIKELY
RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THE RIDGE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA MEANS THE HEAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER, BUT THE
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES REMAIN A BIT FASTER. THIS ALLOWS FOR POPS IN
THE FAR WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. TAKEN AS
A SINGLE MODEL, THE GFS IS DRY THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH RAIN
CHANCES FINALLY ARRIVING SUNDAY. UNTIL THIS UNCERTAINTY DECREASING,
LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE IS
RETURNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TRANQUIL/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
BR/MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER,
DO EXPECT ANY BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS (IF ANY DEVELOP AT ALL) TO BE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEY LOCALES DUE TO LIMITED LL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.
SKIES SHOULD TREND CLEAR SHORTLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE A FEW VFR CU SPROUT ABOUT IN S/SE PARTS OF THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, IMPACTING MAINLY KCVG/KLUK/KILN. LIGHT
ENE WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...KC
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