150
FXUS61 KILN 151700
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
100 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING WITH IT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE PERSISTENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TO FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
ABOVE THE GROUND, THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING OBSERVED DEEP NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THIS FLOW IS THE RESULT OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WHICH GRADUALLY SLIDES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STACKED LOW HELPS TO FEED UPPER-
LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD, PUSHING BANDS OF CIRRUS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EAST, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY AID CLOUD
COVER, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY RAINFALL.
THERE MAY BE MORE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, HIGH PRESSURE, AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
TECHNICALLY, THIS IS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FROM A BIG PICTURE VIEW, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL JET
STREAM PATTERN. THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS HAS MAYBE
ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. A BIT MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST SUPPORTS MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT
RAINFALL REMAINS ABSENT. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY FIVE OR SO DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ONCE AGAIN THE 50S WITH SOME
WARMER SPOTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE JET STREAM PATTERN ARE NOTED STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STACKED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHOW
SOME MORE FORWARD MOTION INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN US. SOME BANDS
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL, DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO
KEEP THE COVERAGE LIMITED. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.
THE STACKED LOW (TROUGH) TO THE EAST WEAKENS THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS ARE NO LONGER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, SO EXPECT A BUMP IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWER
90S MAYBE BE OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS.
AS THE OHIO VALLEY STAYS HOT AND DRY TO END THE WORK WEEK, A
LUMBERING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE REGION. IT MAY TAKE TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, BUT EVENTUALLY, MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL ARE INTRODUCED SATURDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE
SUNDAY. INITIAL EXPECTATIONS IS THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE FAR
ENOUGH EASTWARD TO RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PACKAGE. INSTEAD, ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST US. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THROUGHOUT THESE OPPORTUNITIES OF RAINFALL, IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH RAIN MAY FALL AND TO WHAT POSITIVE IMPACT THAT MAY HAVE ON THE
EXPANDING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT THE
PREVAILING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR INZ073-075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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