263
FXUS61 KILN 161809
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. ALTHOUGH A LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL THEN BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE,
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (THICKEST IN THE EAST) OBSERVED THIS MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
FEW FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, LEAVING JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN
THE DRY AIRMASS HAVE ADJUSTED NBM DEWPOINTS DOWN. EXPECT A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WARM TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S IN OUTLYING AREAS TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST REMAINS THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS AN INDICATION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING,
BUT THE SIGNAL IS AS WEAK AND ANY PRECIP INDICATED IS RATHER LIGHT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF S/W ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH A
FLATTENING TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE.
LATEST NBM HAS ESSENTIALLY PUSHED THIS PRECIP FORECAST BACK BY 24
HOURS AND NOW HAS A CHANCE SUN EVENING WITH NOTHING ON SAT. I CAN'T
FIND ANY REASONING FOR THIS MOVE AND STILL FEEL LIGHT PRECIP SAT EVE
IS THE BETTER FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, NBM AND OUR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CARRIES THIS CHANCE
OF RAIN ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENTIRELY OVERDONE. THAT BEING SAID, AFTER
SAT EVE LIGHT RAIN, TUESDAY HOLDS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BY
DAYBREAK TUES THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SIGNIFICANT BETWEEN THE
GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN.
TEMPERATURES START QUITE WARM THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, WARMEST ON FRIDAY, AND THEN MODERATE TO 85-90 MON AND 80-90
TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURS NIGHT WARM TO THE LOWER
60S BY SAT NIGHT AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL OFFER CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS KLUK VALLEY
LOCATION WHERE A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET LEAVING JUST SOME THIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AGAIN
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ073-075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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