653
FXUS61 KILN 011747
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING BACK RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM HURRICANE IMELDA NOW REMAINS EAST OF OUR CWA AS
THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS VEERS OFF INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THERE WILL BE A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS OFF TO OUR WEST THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS
MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THUS, EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FOR MOST.
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT WILL HELP DROP LOWS INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. SOME OF OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS
MAY DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE H5
RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY STAGNANT. THURSDAY WILL
OFFER VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCE BEING A LARGER INFLUX OF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SYSTEM
UP IN CANADA. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO.
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ENTIRE FA EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US COME FRIDAY, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE IT WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL NOT ONLY KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT IT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE TREND OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD,
EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS MAY INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY FOR OUR FA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION AGAIN
IS FOR KLUK, WHERE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PROVIDE VSBY
REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
LAST NIGHT, IN WHICH NO MVFR REDUCTIONS (OR LOWER) OCCURRED. JUST
HAVE A TEMPO MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR 10 KTS
FROM THE ENE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
GENERALLY REMAIN LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY, NEAR 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CLARK
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...CLARK
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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