481
FXUS61 KILN 020520
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING BACK RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN
FAIRLY STAGNANT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA FROM A
WEAK SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THROUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE, DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE
H5 RIDGE. THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF
FOR SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY STAGNANT.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL THIN OUT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. EXPECT WARM HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY EVENING, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR NEW JERSEY, EXTENDING WELL TO THE WEST, INCLUDING THE
OHIO VALLEY. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. OVER TIME, THESE
FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT FURTHER EAST, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO A PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.
BY MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST,
WITH A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THETA-E COMING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS, BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE
SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES -- VERY LOW ON MONDAY, BUT GREATER ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOME TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY -- THOUGH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR (ALONG WITH NW FLOW)
WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AT KLUK. HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION TO A TEMPO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION WITH THICKENING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A DRY AIRMASS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TODAY WITH A FEW VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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