782
FXUS61 KILN 021748
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING WHATEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
OCCURS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THIN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
DIMINISH. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY, ALTHOUGH STILL
QUITE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ITS CENTER SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER EACH NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN OCCUR AS A ROBUST SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SPREAD IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING AS IT REACHES THIS FAR EAST. EVEN WITH THIS SPREAD, THERE
IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AS BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS BEYOND SOME THIN
CIRRUS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG TO AFFECT KLUK,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL BE TOO DRY FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO OCCUR
THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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