445
FXUS61 KILN 022316
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING WHATEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
OCCURS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THIN
CIRRUS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
DIMINISH. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY, ALTHOUGH STILL
QUITE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ITS CENTER SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER EACH NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.
PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN OCCUR AS A ROBUST SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SPREAD IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING AS IT REACHES THIS FAR EAST. EVEN WITH THIS SPREAD, THERE
IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO START DEVELOPING IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. BUT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AS BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AT KLUK OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WITH CU DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY TOMORROW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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