055
FXUS61 KILN 030954
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OFFER RAIN
CHANCES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY OFFERING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS LIGHT FLOW MAY LEAD TO PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S EAST TO NEAR 60
WEST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN 10-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE VIRGINIA / NORTH CAROLINA COAST, THOUGH THE LARGE
EXPANSE OF THE HIGH WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE WEST, CONTINUING TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SAME AREA, WITH THESE FEATURES GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
BY MONDAY, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE OCCURRING, AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGHING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SOME TIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THETA-E
COMING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING ON MONDAY, WITH ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA -- PERHAPS MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR (ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW) WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
OFFERING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS LIGHT FLOW WAS LEADING
TO RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR TO IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG WHICH IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE THIS MORNING TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW
TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. ALONG WITH
THE RIVER VALLEY FOG THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAND FOG WILL EXIST AT
KILN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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