564
FXUS61 KILN 031734
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST. SOME CUMULUS
THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING INTO AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY COULD DEVELOP INTO THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT. BUT THAT IS A
RATHER LOW POTENTIAL. THUS, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD, BUT WITH ITS
EXTENSIVE EXPANSE, THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
EXPECT MORE OF A CUMULUS FIELD ON SATURDAY, BUT OTHERWISE,
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT IN KEEPING THE
REGION DRY AND VERY WARM. BUT PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA, EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE HAS TIGHTENED UP
A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE, INDICATING LESS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
LATEST TIMING BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY, THESE CHANCES WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE DIURNAL ACTIVITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE TRI-STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS FALLING CLOSER TO NORMAL. ON
FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, BUT THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA AND IF SO HOW STRONG THAT MAY BE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/PSEUDO WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP IN KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT,
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, SO IT SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH MOSTLY LIKELY WILL
LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK. SOME MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z AT SOME OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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