720
FXUS61 KILN 041603
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1203 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOP BY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM, DRY, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PERSIST. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT IN
SHELTERED AREAS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE REGION WILL BE ON THE CUSP OF A PATTERN CHANGE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SHUNTED EASTWARD, HERALDING IN A DEEP, POSITIVELY TILTED, LONGWAVE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. AS
SUCH, MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.
BY MONDAY EVENING, STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL PUMP MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION AND A PWAT SURGE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH VALUES
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR DAILY MAXIMUMS. RIGHT NOW, TIMING
FOR COLD FRONT ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN CWA LOOKS TO BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, SO WE'LL BE AT A MINIMUM FOR DIURNAL
HEATING AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEFT.
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
WHILE SOME RUNOFF PONDING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING SPOTS, MOST
AREAS WILL WELCOME THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY
TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANYWHERE
FROM 0.5 TO 1+ IN. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND FROPA ON WEDNESDAY, STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND TS/TDS WILL PLUNGE 10 TO 15
DEGREES AND HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S; IT WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A SEASONAL FALL DAY. IN FACT, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 30S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
THE END OF THE WEEK GETS A BIT MORE MUDDLED, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED SO THE REGION MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF
ADDITIONAL QPF.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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