146
FXUS61 KILN 061030
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING TODAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE LIMITED TO SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REACHING HIGHS
RANGING FROM NEAR 80 WEST TOP THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE SCIOTO
RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN WITH H8 SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET OFFERING FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING OVERNIGHT.
HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES
OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT
AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. CAPE IS MARGINAL AND VERY SKINNY WHICH
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A SIGNAL EXISTS FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO - WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY MENTION TO HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE HWO.
LOW WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY INT HE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON TUESDAY EVENING, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA, AS THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE PLUME OF
THETA-E ALOFT WILL LAG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY, AND SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY
12Z WEDNESDAY, ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE ILN CWA -- PERHAPS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 -- THE FIRST DAY OF TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL IN
QUITE A WHILE. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY,
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, WHICH WILL DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS BECOMES RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD, AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. THERE
IS SOME MODEST AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH BROADER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
COAST BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS IN THE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES
ARE NOT EAST TO PIN DOWN, AND THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL LIKELY REBOUND
SLIGHTLY FROM THE COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS RESULTING IN VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K-7K FT
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND IMPACT HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP THRU MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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