600
FXUS61 KILN 061801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, A FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES IN WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN STRONGER FORCING SO DESPITE THE
MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. IN THE HEAVIER CORES, RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH CURRENT PWATS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILES
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. DEEP WARM- CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WHERE STRONGER LIFT OCCURS. 12Z HREF AND
06Z REFS SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2"+ WHERE EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES CAN OCCUR.
THESE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN LOCATION DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS,
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DESPITE THE MENTION FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN FROM WPC. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MENTIONED, BUT THIS MAY BE
MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER CORES VERSUS
WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING, SO
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME THUNDER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SO VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ONGOING AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES FINALLY CLEAR
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE EVENTUAL CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WPC CONTINUED THE MENTIONS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES DUE TO RATHER LACK LUSTER DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOCALIZED AREAS LIKELY REQUIRE A THREE TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT RAINFALL RATES TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-4". EVEN
THEN, THE LOCAL WATER IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. FIELD RUNOFF HAS BECOME MORE EFFICIENT DUE TO
THE BROWNING OF CROPS/HARVESTING SO SOME FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IN THE RIGHT SITUATION.
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WRAPS UP DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MOST AREAS
SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH ACROSS THE WHOLE EVENT,
WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA OBSERVING OVER AN INCH. CURRENTLY,
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING UP TO 2" AND GREATER ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HEADED EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BECOMES NORTHEAST AS AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THROUGH
AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MARKED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE MID OHIO
VALLEY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. SO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BRING THE
FIRST POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I70.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S, WITH THURSDAY
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
REGION, WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO BRING BACK INCREASING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER OR NOT A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AS OF NOW THE CHANCES ARE
PRETTY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SET TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT THIS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME VIS RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE AT CVG/LUK WHERE SOME MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY COULD DROP VIS TO MVFR.
THE DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 22Z TUESDAY AND 02Z
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED, COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PREVAILING
GROUPS WITH RAIN AND MVFR VIS. SOME IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES, BUT TIMING AND CONFIDENCE FOR THAT REMAINS TOO LOW TO
SPECIFICALLY MENTION.
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MVFR AND IFR CIGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP,
SPREADING ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. THE ONSET OF THE IFR HAS
BEEN NOTED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AND WOULD BE BASED ON THE BETTER
RAINFALL. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH UNTIL THE
BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE
PERSISTENT IN THE PREVAILING GROUPS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
THUNDERSTORM/EMBEDDED THUNDER ACTIVITY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW FOR PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...JDR
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