400
FXUS61 KILN 070557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF MEAN TROF
WHICH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H8 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OFFERS FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS IT PIVOT THRU THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SLIPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE
IN THE DAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING OUT RATHER DRY BUT HEAVY RAIN IN POCKETS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT
IN THE HWO.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING
"SKINNY CAPE". EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT. RAINFALL CHANCES END FROM THE NORTHWEST - FINALLY
CLEARING SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
MEAN LONGWAVE H5 TROF SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BECOMES NORTHEAST WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR SAULT STE MARIE, WITH A DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
AND MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S, AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST, A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE COMPLICATED FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BUT THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS, A
CLOSED LOW MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH
RIDGING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ILN CWA WILL
BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE MID 70S BY MONDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS TO DROP THRU MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AT TIMES. AFTER A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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