456
FXUS61 KILN 071754
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, PROVIDING A
FINAL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST-CENTRAL
OHIO AND EVEN A SLIVER OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA/CINCINNATI MISSING OUT
ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE CROSSED 3" INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS, BUT THERE ARE
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN 1.5-2.5". THIS HAS PROMPTED A
FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RUNOFF WITH THE
STEADY RAIN. THE MAIN CORRIDORS SEEING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL BE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, THE MIAMI VALLEY, AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
1-2".
AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALREADY ENTERING THE AREA ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY PUSH
OF LOWER THETA-E RUSHES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT THIS
EVENING. A SMALL RIBBON OF CAPE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA, SUPPORTING THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY
LINGERING RAIN WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NOTICEABLE INTENSITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM THE EVENING INTO THE
MORNING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL CLEAR, BUT CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH
DECREASING WINDS, SOME MID 30S AND POCKETS OF FROST CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS DISCUSSED
BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL EVOLVE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE INTERIOR NE CONUS FOR THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK , WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS PERSISTING DURING THIS TIME.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SETUP IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE, WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SFC FLOW
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE, BUT SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5KTS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS NEAR/N OF I-70. CERTAINLY
WE MAY HAVE SOME RURAL/SHELTERED SPOTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY
ALSO HAVE TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME FROST, BUT
FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCALES FOR FROST THAT
COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE HWO. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THE N/NE THIRD OF THE ILN FA IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
FRIDAY. FOR THIS WEEKEND, A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT TO THE SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE OH VLY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING ANY LOW-END PCPN CHANCES STAYING OFF TO THE NE
OF THE LOCAL AREA.
A WARMING TREND WILL EVOLVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
POCKETS OF STEADY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR-LOW MVFR
OBSERVED RESTRICTIONS FROM BOTH CIGS AND VIS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE GAPS OF THE STEADY RAIN, BUT IFR CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-12 KNOTS AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THRU
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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