689
FXUS61 KILN 080130
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, PROVIDING A
FINAL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
930PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED, BUT A
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR, WHICH
IS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
LIKELY WEAKENING IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY. AT THIS JUNCTURE,
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT A STRAY
LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ENSUE BEHIND THESE SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL IN OVERNIGHT, WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN AND
WESTERN OHIO CLEARING OUT AND HELPING LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MIDDLE
40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO AND EVEN A SLIVER OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA/CINCINNATI
MISSING OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED. EVENT
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CROSSED 3" INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS,
BUT THERE ARE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN 1.5-2.5". THIS
HAS PROMPTED A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RUNOFF WITH THE STEADY RAIN. THE MAIN CORRIDORS SEEING HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, THE
MIAMI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, COULD SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2".
AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALREADY ENTERING THE AREA ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY PUSH
OF LOWER THETA-E RUSHES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT THIS
EVENING. A SMALL RIBBON OF CAPE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA, SUPPORTING THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY
LINGERING RAIN WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NOTICEABLE INTENSITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM THE EVENING INTO THE
MORNING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL CLEAR, BUT CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH
DECREASING WINDS, SOME MID 30S AND POCKETS OF FROST CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS DISCUSSED
BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL EVOLVE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE INTERIOR NE CONUS FOR THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK , WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS PERSISTING DURING THIS TIME.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SETUP IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE, WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SFC FLOW
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE, BUT SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5KTS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS NEAR/N OF I-70. CERTAINLY
WE MAY HAVE SOME RURAL/SHELTERED SPOTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY
ALSO HAVE TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME FROST, BUT
FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCALES FOR FROST THAT
COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE HWO. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THE N/NE THIRD OF THE ILN FA IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL EVOLVE FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
FRIDAY. FOR THIS WEEKEND, A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT TO THE SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE OH VLY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING ANY LOW-END PCPN CHANCES STAYING OFF TO THE NE
OF THE LOCAL AREA.
A WARMING TREND WILL EVOLVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THUS, MANY TERMINALS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A TEMPO MENTION
NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THIS. THUNDER PROBS
EXTREMELY LOW FOR THIS BAND GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH THE FRONT,
CHANGING FROM SSW TO ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY IN A MATTER OF HOURS. WINDS
MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS.
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD, LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR BY SUNRISE. ONLY VSBY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXPECT VFR CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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