845
FXUS61 KILN 170041
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
841 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, OFFERING
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING TO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER EASTERN
OHIO. DRY AIRMASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE WEST LATE.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS, AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL OVERNIGHT. SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS EAST AND
NORTH OF COLUMBUS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
SHARP FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW - ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S EAST TO AROUND
70 WEST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A FEW WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A DRY LOW LEVEL IF ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
DEVELOP THEY WILL FALL FROM A MID DECK. CLOUDS AND WAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS WILL CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR DALLAS, TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE,
CAUSING A RAPID WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60 WHILE HIGHS ON SATURDAY
APPROACH (OR PERHAPS EXCEED) 80. THIS IS A NEAR RECORD HIGH FOR
COLUMBUS (83). SUPPOSE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE
DAY... BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES. SURFACE CAPE WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 100-200J/KG RANGE
WHILE 850MB WINDS RISE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THE BEST WIND ENERGY WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. HAVE NUDGED WIND GUSTS UPWARD
TOWARD THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
INTENSITIES AMONG ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF THE LOW CENTER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL NEED
FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE DEGREES CELSIUS.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, ANOTHER QUICK-
MOVING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES COOL TO CLOSE
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LUK THE ONLY EXCEPTION DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ046-056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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