709
FXUS61 KILN 170631
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AMPLIFIED UPPER/MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TN VALLEYS TODAY, WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH/CUT OFF
LOW FROM LOWER MANITOBA SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS OVERNIGHT,
WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S EAST CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH MID 50S WEST DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS, WITH THE MID OHIO VALLEY UNDER STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STRONG
WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
APPROACHING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TIMING OF
ADVANCING SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH THE CURRENT
BLENDED SOLUTION ERRING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING PRECIP
GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18-00Z, BUT COULD BE
SLOWER AND BE CLOSER TO THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWER/STORM ONSET.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT SEE SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AFTER 00-06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION, 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO
40-45KTS BY 06Z AND NEAR 50-55KTS BY 12Z. SURFACE CAPE WILL INCREASE
TO THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE, BRINGING A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORMS WIND
THREAT BEGINNING MAINLY THE LATTER PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RESULTING FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING THE MORE LIKELY WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TO BE IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, IN WHICH THE BLENDED
SOLUTION HAS MUTED, SO WENT WITH AN NBM/90TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND
GUSTS FOR SUNDAY, IN THE 35-40MPH RANGE CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING LOW OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH THE STRONG SURFACE FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
ANOTHER FASTER MOVING BUT MORE MUTED SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL STORMS. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE/TROUGH PASSAGE, NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLES INTO THE REGION BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MID/LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KLUK VISIBILITY DROPPING TO MVFR AND SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME OVERNIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE, WITH SLIGHTLY
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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