801
FXUS61 KILN 171802
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
50S, WITH HIGH CLOUDS COMING AND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING ANY CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH PRIOR TO
NOON. DESPITE A 50+ KNOT LLJ, THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY STAY ALOFT IN
THE WAA UNLESS SHOWERS/STORMS CAN TRANSPORT WINDS DOWNWARD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED AROUND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BEHIND TROUGH LATER DURING
THE DAY. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNLESS SOME
INSTABILITY CAN FORM SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH IN THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR AT LEAST 6-12 HOURS AFTER FROPA. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 50S AND THEN INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SECOND COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT LIMITED.
COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
AND START TO BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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