301
FXUS61 KILN 172306
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
50S, WITH HIGH CLOUDS COMING AND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING ANY CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM TOWARD SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH PRIOR TO
NOON. DESPITE A 50+ KNOT LLJ, THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY STAY ALOFT IN
THE WAA UNLESS SHOWERS/STORMS CAN TRANSPORT WINDS DOWNWARD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED AROUND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BEHIND TROUGH LATER DURING
THE DAY. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNLESS SOME
INSTABILITY CAN FORM SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH IN THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM MIXING.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR AT LEAST 6-12 HOURS AFTER FROPA. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 50S AND THEN INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SECOND COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT LIMITED.
COOLER AIR AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
INTERMITTENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE SOME 6-8KFT CLOUDS DEVELOP/MOVE IN BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD 00Z
AND BEYOND.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF RIVER VALLEY BR AND MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
OCCURRING GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO BE
STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE.
LIGHT SSE WINDS AROUND 5KTS THROUGH 12Z WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE SW
AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS, BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED AROUND/PAST 06Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS TO 40KTS, AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. LLWS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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