696
FXUS61 KILN 181038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT WILL BRING BOTH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY. DEW POINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 80S. THE RECORD HIGH AT COLUMBUS
(83 IN 1938 AND 2016) COULD BE REACHED, BUT THE RECORDS AT DAYTON
AND CINCINNATI ARE BOTH 86 AND WILL BE SAFE. HIGH CLOUDS TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT HIGHER-BASED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20
MPH RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THERE ARE A FEW DYNAMIC SHORT
WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUING OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG THE
INDIANA-OHIO BORDER THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK LEADING IMPULSE. BUT
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL AS THIS MOVES THROUGH,
BUT THERE PLENTY OF INDICATIONS THAT THE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN SOME
OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AND IT COULD REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
SUGGEST THAT GUSTINESS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY.
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, IT WILL
BRING A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE AS STRONG
AS THOSE THAT OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME PREVALENT AS THIS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF A DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY
FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, BUT ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL
BE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
TAKING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WITH IT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALREADY STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC DURING THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA, BUT A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
WITH THIS FRONT AND THE FORCING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, SO ANY SHOWERS
MAY ONLY BE SCATTERED. WILL REMAIN IN POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR SO AFTER THE FRONT BUT THEN RETURN CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 6-8KT DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT
TOWARDS 00Z. AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW LEVEL
JET, SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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