199
FXUS61 KILN 190631
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. AS THE
FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE EXISTING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT A
NARROW LINE OF MORE INTENSE ECHOES TO DEVELOP WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BE COMING IN JUST AS A LOW LEVEL JET IS LIFTING OUT. BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SHOWERS TO TAP INTO AND MIX DOWN
THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. IF THESE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE, THEY
WILL BE TRANSIENT AND NOT LAST TOO LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES A BIT BAGGY
AND SO WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY, IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY SO.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE DRY SLOT. SO AS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY IN THE TRI-STATE AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL AND WELL AS SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ON TOP OF
THE GRADIENT WINDS.
COMING IN BEHIND THAT WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH FOR A
FEW HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN THE EVENING, SHOWERS WILL END,
WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS LIFTS OUT JUST IN TIME FOR A MORE
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION,
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. BUT A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS VARIABILITY WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT, IT LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A HIGH WILL FINALLY BUILD IN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE FOR SOME SPOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY AND SOME RAIN
NORTH OF THAT COULD TRY TO PUSH INTO THE TRI-STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THEN SETTLE
IN BELOW NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD IS RESULTING
IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOME OF THE WIND IS MIXING DOWN ALLOWING FOR
GUSTS. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY GET ENHANCED ONCE A COLD
FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THIS. WHEN THAT HAPPENS, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST, DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THIS
OCCURRING OR AFFECTING THE TERMINALS, SO ONLY COVERED THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A PROB30. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 20Z. WINDS, BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS, WILL INCREASE WHILE
VEERING TO THE WEST. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY, CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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