634
FXUS61 KILN 191038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BY 16Z. MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO
AND MIX DOWN THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. IF THESE STRONGER WINDS
MATERIALIZE, THEY WILL BE TRANSIENT AND NOT LAST TOO LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES A BIT BAGGY
AND SO WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY, IT WILL NOT BE OVERLY SO.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE DRY SLOT. SO AS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY IN THE TRI-STATE AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GRAUPEL AND WELL AS SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ON TOP OF
THE GRADIENT WINDS.
COMING IN BEHIND THAT WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH FOR A
FEW HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN THE EVENING, SHOWERS WILL END,
WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS LIFTS OUT JUST IN TIME FOR A MORE
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION,
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. BUT A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS VARIABILITY WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT, IT LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A HIGH WILL FINALLY BUILD IN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE FOR SOME SPOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY AND SOME RAIN
NORTH OF THAT COULD TRY TO PUSH INTO THE TRI-STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THEN SETTLE
IN BELOW NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS CEILINGS DROP TO
MVFR. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST
BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR CINCINNATI TOWARDS 16Z AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THEN ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE. AS THIS LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES
EAST AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY, CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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