426
FXUS61 KILN 191359
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR MONDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED THIN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30KTS
WITH THE LINE. COLD FRONT ITSELF LINGERING FROM JUST WEST OF KSBN TO
JUST WEST OF KIND TO KEVV. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 16-18Z. A BOWING AREA OF STRONGER SHOWERS IN THE DRY
SLOT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA IS PUSHING INTO A REGION OF LESS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING TREND, BUT
MORE FOCUSED GUSTS COULD AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF KDAY IN THE 15-17Z
TIMEFRAME BEFORE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA, A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS UNTIL AFTER 17Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS COLD AIR ALOFT DESCENDS AND THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH, BRINGING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, IN WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER FOCUSED WINDS ASIDE FROM THE GRADIENT WINDS. STILL THINKING
SOME GRAUPEL IS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION TAPPING INTO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT. GRADIENT WINDS OF 35-40MPH RAMP UP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT THEN
FALL OFF AFTER ABOUT 23Z. FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN THE EVENING, SHOWERS WILL END,
WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS LIFTS OUT JUST IN TIME FOR A MORE
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION,
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. BUT A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS VARIABILITY WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT, IT LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN A HIGH WILL FINALLY BUILD IN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE FOR SOME SPOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY AND SOME RAIN
NORTH OF THAT COULD TRY TO PUSH INTO THE TRI-STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THEN SETTLE
IN BELOW NORMAL FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS CEILINGS DROP TO
MVFR. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST
BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR CINCINNATI TOWARDS 16Z AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THEN ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE. AS THIS LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES
EAST AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY, CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ045-046-052>056-062>065-
071>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ075-080.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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