041
FXUS61 KILN 192302
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT,
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN FOR MONDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW INTO EASTERN OHIO, WITH THE FRONT ITSELF NEAR
THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. A RELATIVE LULL IN WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX BEHIND A NARROW DRY SLOT PUSHING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, YIELDING AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 25KTS. OVERALL TRENDS IN THE CAMS HAVE THESE SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AS THEY EXIT THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS RAMPING UP IN EASTERN INDIANA WITH STRONG CAA DESCENDING
UPON THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING ENHANCED BY
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS ALSO RAMPING BACK UP, AS HIGH AS 30-40MPH, WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL OHIO BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA TO
FOLLOW, WITH WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z, THEN GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT ENOUGH WIND
GRADIENT TO AVOID VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS/LOW STRATUS. STRONG CAA
WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WITH WINDS NEAR THE GRADIENT UP TO 20 MPH.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE
REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION, MOSTLY
ALONG AND NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR. WITH WAA INCREASING IN THE SW FLOW,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
WHICH BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PWATS AND FORCING
ARE WEAK SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ANY RAIN CHANCES END TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA.
COLDER, DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAIN IN
THE 50S WHILE LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S. THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FROST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN SINCE THE OHIO VALLEY WILL IS IN A DESCENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO WINDS MITIGATING FROST POTENTIAL, SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER. EITHER WAY, CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BANDED RA WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL SLOWLY PIVOT OUT OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD, LINGERING THE LONGEST
AT ERN SITES OF KCMH/KLCK. COINCIDING WITH THIS RA ARE SOME GUSTY WNW
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. THE
GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE, SHORTLY AFTER THE RA DEPARTS, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS OF 6-8KTS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME.
THE MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT PROGRESSIVELY FROM W TO E THROUGH 04Z,
WITH SKC AREA-WIDE THEREAFTER. A FEW CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAYTIME, MAINLY FOR NRN SITES.
SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 45-50KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...
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