986
FXUS61 KILN 201702
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
102 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH ALLOWS COOL, DRY, AND CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEREBY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8AM WHEN INCREASED
MOISTURE OVERLAPS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT FAIRLY LIMITED, AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. A MORE PRONOUNCED SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW STILL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE
AREA. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S, AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CAA/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE AREA,
WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE REGION IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OHIO GENERALLY NORTH OF I70, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS ENDED UP REMAINING FURTHER INTO
NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH AND LOWER 50S NORTH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO MITIGATE PATCHY FROST FORMATION. AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
HIGHS, AND THEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON AND LIGHT
WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY. THOUGH WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DEEP CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SW STATES EARLY FRIDAY, WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE TRI STATE AND
NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, THEN A SLOW
WARMUP AND RETURN OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AFTER 0600Z TONIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 0600Z TO ABOUT 1300Z. AFTER
1200Z, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS AFTER 1800Z TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS PERSISTS THROUGH 1200Z TUESDAY.
AFTER 1200Z, WINDS START VEERING TO THE WEST. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM 0600Z-1200Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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