826
FXUS61 KILN 210051
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
851 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IS GOING TO BE THE
EXPECTATION FOR A NARROW LINE OF SHRA TO PROGRESS W TO E THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 07Z-12Z. WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
AND RELATIVELY POTENT LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHRA (OR WHERE VIRGA IS OCCURRING) TO HELP ENHANCE THE TRANSLATION
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. AS SUCH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS, PARTICULARLY NEAR/N OF I-70 ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHRA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS GUSTINESS IS
MARGINAL/BRIEF ENOUGH THAT DO NOT YET HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE
HWO, BUT IT IS MENTIONED HERE FOR GENERAL AWARENESS.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL PLATEAU AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE NUDGING UP A FEW
DEGREES THEREAFTER THROUGH SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASES DURING THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH ALLOWS COOL, DRY, AND CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEREBY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8AM WHEN INCREASED MOISTURE
OVERLAPS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT FAIRLY LIMITED, AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. A MORE PRONOUNCED SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW STILL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE
AREA. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S, AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CAA/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE AREA,
WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE REGION IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OHIO GENERALLY NORTH OF I70, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS ENDED UP REMAINING FURTHER INTO
NORTHERN OHIO. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH AND LOWER 50S NORTH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO MITIGATE PATCHY FROST FORMATION. AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
HIGHS, AND THEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON AND LIGHT
WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY. THOUGH WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DEEP CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SW STATES EARLY FRIDAY, WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE TRI STATE AND
NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, THEN A SLOW
WARMUP AND RETURN OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SKC WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN
03Z-06Z, WITH AN INFLUX OF SOME 6-8KFT CLOUDS PAST 06Z. SOME BRIEF
ISO SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-12Z BEFORE A BRIEF
CLEARING TREND EVOLVES ONCE AGAIN TOWARD MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT SHRA (WITH SOME ISO TS POSSIBLE) WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z-00Z, MAINLY FOR NRN SITES. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO
15-18KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS, EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER 21Z AS
WELL, WITH CLOUD COVER, GUSTS, AND SHRA CHANCES HIGHEST FOR NRN SITES
OF KDAY/KCMH/KLCK FOR THE FINAL PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS, WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE KCVG 30-HR TAF PERIOD INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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