798
FXUS61 KILN 210617
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF IT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
INITIAL SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE TRACK OF THE
SHORT WAVE, PRIMARILY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BE A NARROW BAND WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS WHEREVER RAIN DOES
OCCUR.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAT
THE MORNING SYSTEM AND CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE AREA. THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MATERIALIZE. AGAIN, THIS WILL
BE A NARROW, FAST-MOVING BAND. WIND GUSTS COULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS OR STORMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PEA HAIL AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN QUITE A GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE CLOUDS MAY
PREDOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER MAY HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE
DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AND
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. NARROW RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
EXITS, BUT IT WILL BE TRANSIENT AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS IT PIVOTS NORTH NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY
LINGER. BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO FROST FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS KENTUCKY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE AND THERE IS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WHEN/IF THAT MIGHT LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. BUT MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL FORCING PASSING WEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WARM
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD WILL END
BEFORE 12Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM 11Z-15Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG
IT, BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. AFTER 17Z, GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA 20Z-24Z WITH
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM.
ANY CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT GUSTS WILL DIMINISH. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK WILL
PERSIST BUT REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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