151
FXUS61 KILN 211044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF IT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OFF TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAT THE
MORNING SYSTEM AND CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE AREA. THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME
THUNDER AS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MATERIALIZE. AGAIN, THIS WILL
BE A NARROW, FAST-MOVING BAND. WIND GUSTS COULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS OR STORMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PEA HAIL AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN QUITE A GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE CLOUDS MAY
PREDOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER MAY HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE
DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AND
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. NARROW RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
EXITS, BUT IT WILL BE TRANSIENT AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS IT PIVOTS NORTH NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY
LINGER. BUT IF SKIES ARE CLEAR, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO FROST FORMATION THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS KENTUCKY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE AND THERE IS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WHEN/IF THAT MIGHT LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. BUT MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE MID
LEVEL FORCING PASSING WEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WARM
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT
TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AND SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT
THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS RIGHT AT THE START. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO
THE AREA AT THAT POINT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION 23Z-03Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 6-8KFT DECK
WILL SETTLE IN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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