357
FXUS61 KILN 211805
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TODAY OFFERING SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
THREAT FOR FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEEP H5 LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING -
WHICH HAVE QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A SECOND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
TRACKING THRU THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THERE EVEN
COULD BE ISOLD THUNDER WITH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY MORE ROBUST SHOWERS OR STORMS AND CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PEA HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD. PCPN MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY EVENING BUT CLOUDS HANG ON OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE INCREASED NBM CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT LOCATIONS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD
CLIP AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY.
IN CAA PATTERN SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
CLOUDS DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. WINDS WHICH STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FROST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LOW WILL BE PULLING AWAY OVER QUEBEC BUT LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LARGELY AMOUNT TO
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OHIO. A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS
AND BRINGS IN SUN AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR 60, WITH
MID 50S NORTH. AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FRIDAY
MORNING.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING SQUEEZED WITH THE APPROACH OF A CUTOFF LOW
WRAPPING UP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST FORMATION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DEEP H5 LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING AROUND
THIS LOWS WILL MOVE THRU REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING.(23Z-03Z). AHEAD OF THE FRONT FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BETWEEN 4-5KFT. IN THE WELL MIXED
AIRMASS WINDS WILL SOUTHWEST O WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE EVEN COULD BE ISOLD THUNDER DUE
TO VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 KTS. A BROKEN
5-8KFT CLOUD DECK WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-5KFT TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AROUND 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR
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