907
FXUS61 KILN 220447
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE THREAT FOR FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE ASSOCIATED
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY TONIGHT. HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS, PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE TROUGH,
AFFECTING ALL BUT OUR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES
IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY KEEP STEADY WESTERLY WINDS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS KEEPING FROST CHANCES LOW DESPITE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SLOW SHIFT INTO QUEBEC AND
THE LOWER LAKES THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, FROST CHANCES ARE
INCREASING, WITH BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT, FROST COULD BE
LIMITED TO CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXTENT OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE LOWERED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CLOSE THE PERIOD, SO POPS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. PERSISTENT VFR STRATOCUMULUS IS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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