003
FXUS61 KILN 230511
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CENTRAL OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A VERY LARGE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE E THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE OH VLY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE N/NE THIRD OF THE ILN FA, WITH SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENT AND EXPANSION EXPECTED WITH A CU FIELD BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE FCST FOR FROST THROUGH DAYBREAK REMAINS ON TRACK AS OBS SHOW MANY
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRI-STATE INTO N/NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY
SLOWLY DECOUPLING AMIDST CLEAR SKIES, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER TO THE NE FROM WC OH THROUGH CENTRAL
OH, THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S FROM WC OH AND CENTRAL OH
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE ROBUST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
TRI-STATE AND N/NE KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THE
DEEP/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER TO THE E.
THIS BEING SAID, THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME WNW FLOW OFF THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH
NRN OH, POTENTIALLY GRAZING FAR NRN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS
THE ONLY "FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT" IN AN OTHERWISE CLEAR-CUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP FOR TONIGHT.
A STRONG SIGNAL PERSISTS FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR
THE S/SW 3/4 OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR MANY SPOTS TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN RURAL/SHELTERED LOCALES FROM EC IN
THROUGH THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY INTO NE KY. IN FACT, SOME UPPER 20S
CERTAINLY COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM FAR NRN PARTS OF WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
REGARDING CLOUDS/TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT, DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ENTIRE
AREA TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS (WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS) IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. DESPITE CALM
WINDS, FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PRESENT.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY FEATURES A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW AVERAGE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATION COOLING IN SOUTHWEST OHIO,
EASTERN INDIANA, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. COLDER LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE HIGH KEEPS SKIES CLEARER.
SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO REGION
SOMEWHERE. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH SINCE THE AMPLITUDE
AND PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. SOME MEMBERS HAVE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE CUTOFF TROUGH SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHERN USA WHILE SOME ENSEMBLES HAVE A LOWER AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE IS BETTER RESOLVED, FORECAST DETAILS MAY REMAIN UNRESOLVED.
THE ADDITION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN/NORTH ATLANTIC IS
NOT HELPING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ANY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VFR STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WE GET
INTO SOME DIURNAL HEATING, EXPECT THE CU/STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ060-070-077>079.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>099.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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