412
FXUS61 KILN 021447
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA,
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST OHIO. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BAND OF RAIN, LESS FORCING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO REACH
THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
RICHMOND, IN TO WILMINGTON, OH BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LINGERING RAINFALL CHANCES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH.
FOR THE AREAS THAT STAY DRY, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER KEEPS TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 50S, BUT IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR A BIT
FASTER, UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE GETTING REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT, SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKELY SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY EVENING BUT ALSO OUTSIDE OF THEM AS
WELL. BECAUSE THE RAINFALL IS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, UNCERTAINTY IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE LIMITED
MENTIONS OF FOG TO THE SCIOTO, WHITE WATER, AND OHIO RIVERS FOR NOW
WITH AREAS OF FOG MENTIONED FOR OVERLAND AREAS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER
VALLEYS, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID MORNING, A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THE AREA IS GOING TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HOWEVER, SOME NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
THE WINDS DOWN. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND AS HIGH AS 30 MPH IS THE
EXPECTED RANGE. THESE WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ON.
TEMPERATURES ARE FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING TOWARD 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ALOFT, A WEAK SYSTEM PROVIDES INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
BUT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THIS FEATURE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE CLOUDS LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE EVEN WARMER.
A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 21ST, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUTS A DAMPER ON THE
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY, AS SEASONAL NORMS RETURN.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN MORE EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH, TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN, BUT IF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOW ENOUGH, ANOTHER WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
RAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY QUICKLY FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
15Z UPDATE: DUE TO PERSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE, CLOUD BASES
HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THEREFORE, HAVE INTRODUCED
MVFR CEILINGS AT LUK AND KEPT CVG'S MVFR CEILINGS AROUND A BIT LONGER
INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECT EVENTUAL SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE OUR
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...
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