184
FXUS61 KILN 030017
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
717 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION PROVIDING
DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY STAY DRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK LIFT NORTH OF A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING... ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE 30S. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN PRONE AREAS
TOWARD MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S, WITH LOWS
REACHING THE 30-35 RANGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WE
WILL THEN START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES, WARMING TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP SOME WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND PUSH A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL PULL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BUT WARM UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
SOME STRONGER MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO CARVE OUT A
DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY TO CONTINUE MOVING TO ESE
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL
VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE OUR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING
MAY SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. SOME FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE - WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTEST. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK
VALLEY LOCATION AND MVFR AT KILN.
ON MONDAY, A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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