382
FXUS61 KILN 030628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARM RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE LATE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE WEST AND SETTLES
OVER THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY, SETTING UP ANOTHER WARMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOWS A COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD SHOT
OF RAIN TO THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
NBM SEEMS BULLISH ON FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING AND SEEMS
TO BE FLIP FLOPPING WITH EACH RUN. CURRENT OBS OVER MUCH OF KY
NOSING INTO OUR CWA ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG, ALONG WITH LOWERING VSBYS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE
SOUP, AND THE EXPANSIVE STRATUS IN EASTERN KY SPREADING NWD THROUGH
ROBERTSON COUNTY INTO BRACKEN AND MASON COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR KY COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL UNIFORMLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, THE UNIFORM
AIRMASS WILL BE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE OVERDONE
BEING WARM ADVECTION, BUT REPRESENT A PRETTY GOOD HIGH-END VALUE ON A
DAY WHEN WINDS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THAN NOT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, GETTING HUNG UP THIS EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES, WINDS WILL DIE DOWN RATHER
RAPIDLY AND GO RELATIVELY CALM (AT LEAST <5 MPH) BY DAYBREAK. THESE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW AND
MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL PERMIT RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TUES AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS WED, A 45KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PASS LATER IN THE DAY AS
IT'S PARENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADVECTED IN,
PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S (LOWER 40S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER) AND ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 66-68 DEG. THE
UNIFORMITY OF WED HIGHS IS DUE TO THE LLJET THOROUGHLY MIXING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE ON THOSE STRONGER SW WINDS. REGARDING THAT, WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SURFACE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AS THE
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT DAYBREAK. WED NIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.
THIS HIGH WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER RETURN FLOW
SETUP THURS NIGHT/FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
LATER IN THE DAY FRI. THIS NEXT FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH
DRY, AND HIGH DAYTIME POPS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT IS A STRONG AIRMASS CHANGE THAT ONLY PERMITS SAT
HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S. STRONG NW FLOW BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS BRINGS EVEN COOLER HIGHS FOR SUN,
FROM MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S OVER SRN OH AND NRN KY.
SUN NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST READINGS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAY BEYOND FRI, WITH A
DRY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT THAT DECREASE IN
THE WEST SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING IN THE EAST DUE TO HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. WHILE THE OUTLAY OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS NOT SET, WHAT IS SET IS THE COLD ADVECTION ON STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG (DENSE AT CVG/LUK) WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH OR JUST A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK TODAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL OF STRATUS EXPANDING TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS, IN PARTICULAR
ILN AND LCK, THEN CMH AND LASTLY DAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY WILL
REALLY PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. LESS THAN 5KT AT DAYBREAK WILL
RAMP UP TO NEAR 10KT, THEN 10-15KT BEFORE NOON WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY TO 25KT. ONCE DAYLIGHT BEGINS TO WANE, WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN IN THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITH A RIDGE
AXIS NOSING NW, CROSSING WESTERN CWA WILL BRING A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
2-3KT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK.
SKIES WILL BE VFR WITH SOME PASSING CU, POSSIBLY A LIFTING STRATUS IN
THE CINCY AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ073-078>082-
088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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