004
FXUS61 KILN 031626
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1126 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL NOSE UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. BUT WITH A DECREASING GRADIENT
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD END UP WITH SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME MID
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH OUR AREA IN BETWEEN THIS
SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL SEE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DEVELOPING WAA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY FRIDAY, A DEEPER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN
A TRANSITION TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FORTIFIES THE
TROUGH. SUPPOSE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERLAPS WITH COLDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME MIXING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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