988
FXUS61 KILN 040632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS FRIDAY EVENING. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM THE WI/MI BORDER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TO THE PARENT CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE REGION TODAY, PEAKING
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RISE, THOUGH
HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 60 IN ALL AREAS.
AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, WE MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. BUT WITH A DECREASING GRADIENT
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD END UP WITH SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING EAST AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5 MPH. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY, LEADING TO WARM ADVECTION
AND OVERNIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST, 5-10
MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER IN THE 40S.
THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED AFTERNOON, WITH A
WESTERLY SHIFT TO THE WINDS IN OUR REGION, AND AN INCREASE TO
15-20 MPH, GUSTING 25-35 MPH. THE DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL CROSS IN THE LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH. WHILE
THE FRONT MAY BE DRY, IT DENOTES A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE. AS
IT CROSSES, EXPECT ABOUT A 15-20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM
LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNSET WILL
HAVE TEMPS DROP FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S INTO THE MID 40S NORTH OF
I-70, A LITTLE OVER 50 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO.
IN RAPID FASHION, A SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THE LOW AND SETTLE OVER
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND CLEAR
SKY COVER WILL PERMIT LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE HIGH MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 40 IN THE HOCKING HILLS AND
SOUTHERN SCIOTO VALLEY TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER AND
NORTH CENTRAL KY.
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES AS 850MB LLJET OF
45-50KT MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION, WHICH WILL THEN GET WRUNG OUT AS A GOOD RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING. RAIN WILL ABRUPTLY
END AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL SEE
HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST, MID-UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 60 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40.
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH CROSSES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND IT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN AN
EASTWARD TRACK. NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF IT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MID 40S NORTHWEST, LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 40. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE
20S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ASIDE FROM THE VALLEY FOG AT KLUK, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TODAY
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10KT,
THEN BACK AND LOWER SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATER OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AND SHOULD BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE INDICATION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AT ANY PARTICULAR
LEVEL OR TIME IS NOT NOTED, SO FCST IS FOR SKC.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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