157
FXUS61 KILN 042347
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING THE FIRST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES LATE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED
TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BREEZY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN MIXING
PEAKS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS SPIKE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEHIND
THE DRY COLD FRONT BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT ON MODERATE CAA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. COOL, CALM, AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LOWS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 40.
ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA.
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS DEEPENING LOW. A CHANCE FOR
RAIN EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO INCLUDE
SOME RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR SURGES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE THE
FIRST FLAKES FOR THE SEASON AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE BEST WIND GUSTS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT PRIMARILY AROUND KCMH AND KLCK, THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
BRIEF TIME PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONT, HOWEVER GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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