371
FXUS61 KILN 052311
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY, RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER FROPA THIS EVENING, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEFORE RELAXING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST LOWS DROP TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY, SUNNY, AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW IN INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH
LIMITS LOWS AND GRADUALLY INCREASES MOISTURE. ANY RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME OF FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF FROPA IS
UNCERTAIN (ANYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON), A HEALTHY
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW SINCE INSTABILITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIMITED, BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS. A LATE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INSTABILITY TO FORM RATHER THAN AN EARLY
FROPA. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX.
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN FRONT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
LOW ON BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP THROUGH
THE 40S DURING THE DAY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY THEN LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES
OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE AREA. MINOR, BRIEF DUSTING ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND THE GROUND IS WARM.
COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
HARD FREEZES OF THE FALL SEASON ARE EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS WITH
FORECAST LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH FEW/SCT VFR ALTOCU CLEARING OUT
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEREAFTER, SOME CIRRUS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME.
NW WINDS OF 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS, WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING BY/AFTER
03Z AREA-WIDE. LIGHT/VRB SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED PAST 06Z BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-7KTS ONCE AGAIN BY/PAST 18Z.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS, ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN,
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS IS EXPECTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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