836
FXUS61 KILN 060710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH RAIN AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THRU NEW ENGLAND LEAVES NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT - SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA - WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE REGION OF WAA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE
LOWER/MID 40S WEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS
THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND WINDS INCREASE.
ON FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. 8H SOUTHERLY JET OF 50-55KTS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH MOST DATA SETS INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING IN THE
WEST AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT GIVEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG
WIND FLOW THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-71 DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR
60 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POSITIONS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO
EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH
OUR AREA.
AFTER SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS MAY START TO MIX
WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE LINGERING HEAT CONTENT OF THE GROUND, WE
DON'T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT STICKING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AND CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY AS LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS BLOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WE WILL START THE DAY IN THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD A LOW IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY REACH
THE 30S. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 20S
MOST OF MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO RETURN INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASING TREND IN SKY COVER TO
CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-7KTS
THIS AFTN. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOP LATE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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