570
FXUS61 KILN 061825
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO TO START THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND
THERE WILL BE SOME TRANSIENT LOWER CLOUDS AS A LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AS WINDS INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL TRANSFORM INTO A BAND, OR BANDS, OF
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS IN EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FORCING CATCHES
UP AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. UNLESS
MORE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE
SHOWERS OR ANY STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL RELAX. TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH PERIODS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY PIVOTS SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CROSSING FROM
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FAVORED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, WHICH MUCH OF THE MODEL SUITE TAKES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO.
WHILE THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW MUCH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS A COMPACT UPPER LOW IN THE BASE WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. IF THE MORE ENERGETIC SOLUTION IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OCCURS, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
DESPITE GROUND TEMPERATURES BEING WARM.
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, SWINGING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MIDWEEK. SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE EAST, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE. THERE
WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
15Z. AROUND THAT TIME, SURFACE WINDS WILL START GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A VFR DECK INTO THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE
TRANSIENT. THEN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 15Z. THIS COULD CAUSE
CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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