480
FXUS61 KILN 071110
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
610 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS AN 8H 50 KT LLJ PIVOTS THRU THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT -
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN
DEVELOP INTO A BAND THAT CROSSES THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS
ALOFT.
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THE SHOWERS OR ANY STORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW AND LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN SCIOTO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S SYSTEM, CLOUDS CLEAR AND WINDS RELAX LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING. IN THE FAST MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE REGION
LATE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.
MID LEVEL JET ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL WAA CLOUDS TO PIVOT THRU THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
POSITIONS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHARP COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT, CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS
MAY START TO MIX WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE'S ENVELOPE VARY ON STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
THE STRONGER RUNS ALLOWING FOR A WEAK TROWAL TO FORM NORTH OF THE
DIGGING UPPER LOW, SLIDING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. BELIEVE THIS WOULD REPRESENT THE 90TH PERCENTILE SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY, WITH THE LINGERING HEAT CONTENT OF THE GROUND, EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY IN NATURE, MELTING DURING BREAKS
IN THE PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A
HARD FREEZE OCCURRING BOTH NIGHTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AT NIGHT AND IN THE 20S MONDAY
AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TOWARD MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO RETURN TO AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY AND THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASING TREND IN SKY
COVER STARTING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
4000-5000 FEET EARLY.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND CLOUDS LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING WITH RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
PIVOTS THRU THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT AND WIND GUSTS DECREASING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page