224
FXUS61 KILN 072335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF COLD SNAP WILL ENSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE
SEASON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MIDDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE. WEAK
INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST INDIANA, AND FAR SOUTHERN OHIO. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING. THE SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE WILL LAY OUT AN EAST-WEST FRONT THAT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN HEAD MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ALONG A STALLED EAST-WEST FRONT, WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
TAKING THIS LOW FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO COME IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW TO CAUSE A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MAY STILL BE NEAR CENTRAL OHIO
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. SO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY SUNDAY.
WELL ADVERTISED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
AND THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE. SO EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS INCREASING SPREAD IN HOW FAST THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT, IT WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE WILL BE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF
SUBTLE TROUGHS MAY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BAND LIKELY STREAMING OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS THE FLOW BACKS TO
MORE WESTERLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY FURTHER ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN A BRIEF COLD SNAP.
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME RATHER STABLE WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
US. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WELL. COMBINE THIS WITH WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND THE
RECENT RAINFALL FROM TODAY, SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KLUK DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER
VALLEY, AS WELL AS KCMH/KLCK DUE TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYING ACROSS THAT AREA. HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST A TEMPO IFR MENTION
AT THOSE TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO TREND EVEN LOWER.
FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS, JUST HAVE A TEMPO MVFR VSBY REDUCTION,
BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
SOME BR MAY LIFT INTO SHALLOW STRATUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL AT KCMH/KLCK WITH A SCT002 GROUP. THIS
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY
FORMING A VFR CLOUD DECK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS, WITH VARIABILITY EXPECTED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT OUT OF THE SW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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